Will home-field advantage exist in MLB's shortened and fan-less 2020 season?
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The team with the most wins during the regular season will be given hosting privileges for the 2021 Fall Classic. Basketball's playoffs are made up of 16 teams overall—that's more than half the league, by the way—which is more than both MLB and the NFL. That means there are a whopping 15 series every season for a total of 150 over the past 10. Late in every baseball season, fans of contending teams dream of deep October runs and begin to wonder how the World Series home-field advantage might affect their hopes for a championship. In all sports, there’s at least some advantage for the home side, and it will vary by the strengths of the respective teams.
This isn’t an easy question to answer, but it is an important question to ask when considering betting on baseball. Because MLB betting doesn’t involve a point spread it’s not as easy for us to establish a baseline for what home field advantage is worth. Wins, not winning margins are more important when you are betting on the moneyline, so how can we quantify a true home field advantage to increase our winning percentage.
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However, it appears that the Rockies are a different breed altogether, and they seem to break the model. Consider the year-to-year correlation for 1998—2008 without the Rockies— that clocks in at .065, which is nowhere near statistically significant. Home teams are more successful in their stolen-base attempts, nabbing bags successfully in 71.2 percent of their attempts, while road teams are successful in 69.4 percent of theirs. It’s tough to know whether it is due to catchers reacting more slowly, baserunners running faster, or umpires being swayed by the home crowd when the call is close.
Home-field advantage proved completely useless for the Cardinals last year. After going 11-8 against the Cubs during the regular season, they managed to win only Game 1 of the NLDS before dropping three straight. The 98-win Angels in 2014 were even worse, as they failed to win even one playoff game.
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The 2020 MLB season -- delayed four months and spanning just 60 regular season games -- will be like nothing we've ever glimpsed before in a number of ways. One of those ways, albeit much less conspicuous than others, is what will become of the home-field advantage. Game 1 is set for Tuesday, Oct. 24, and if there is a Game 7, it will be played on Wednesday, Nov. 1. In the first NLDS, the top division-winning seed in the NL, the Dodgers (104-58), get home-field advantage over the winner of the NL Wild Card Game. In the first ALDS, the top division-winning seed in the AL, the Indians (102-60), gets home-field advantage over the winner of the AL Wild Card Game. The team that recently won an AL-record 22 consecutive games also has some unfinished business in the postseason, maybe more than anyone else.
Applying these findings to the 2013 baseball playoffs—at least so far—proves much the same. While the Pirates and Red Sox took care of business, the Indians and Braves lost. Beginning in 2017, home-field advantage in the World Series is awarded to the team with the better regular-season winning percentage. With the MLB regular season coming to a close, many fans are wondering how the playoffs work. In this comprehensive guide, we will answer all of those questions and more!
Will home-field advantage exist in MLB's shortened and fan-less 2020 season?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in Major League Baseball for the 2022 season and will host the World Series while holding a home field advantage throughout the series. They currently have a franchise-best 109 wins, with five games left to play. In all sports, a home field advantage is important, but it is especially important in baseball, which is inherently a physically demanding sport.
Therefore, I took games played among teams within the same division and compared them to games played among teams in different divisions, since intradivision matchups occur more frequently and usually require less travel. Home teams win just over 53.3 percent of intradivision games, which means that they have a 6.7 percent home-field advantage. In contrast, inter-division games showed an 8.7 percent home-field advantage. The extra home-field advantage in the first three innings strongly suggests that comfort and familiarity are significant to home-field advantage. The large effects within the strike zone indicate that the mound and the batter’s eye are things that pitchers and hitters are more comfortable with at home. The extra triples surrendered on the road strongly suggest an impact that ballpark familiarity has on home-field advantage.
Perhaps teams have been able to improve their home-field advantage by acquiring players who better suit their ballparks. Furthermore, if teams are more likely to hit home runs at home, we may wonder whether players who hit more home runs will have higher or lower differentials between their home-run rates at home as opposed to the road. In this section, we will test several statistics for this possible trend. That this effect holds only for teams playing closer together suggests that it depends on either mode of travel or travel distance. Perhaps something about the last game of the series shifts the advantage to the road team, but they struggle through the first couple of games.
Why not award the AL club that wins 98 games and the NL squad that wins 92 games? In fact, that happened in 2014 when the Houston Astros defeated the Baltimore Orioles to win the World Series. The coronavirus pandemic brought about numerous changes to the 2020 MLB season, of course, extending all the way to the sport’s ultimate stage. The 116th World Series between the Dodgers and Rays was held at a neutral playing site -- brand-new Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas -- for the first time in history as part of MLB’s efforts to minimize exposure to the coronavirus. It was also the first Fall Classic played at just one stadium since 1944, when the Browns and Cardinals squared off at their shared home of Sportsman’s Park in St. Louis. The range for hockey's playoff series won by home teams goes from a high of 11 in 2004 to a low of six in 2012.
For the four-game series, there is a huge effect in the third game. This occurs primarily if the away team had an off day before the series began. In four-game series when home teams had an off day before, they won 58.2 percent of the 273 game threes. When they did not have an off day before, they won only 54.3 percent of the 1,211 game threes. They outscored their opponents 4.90—4.41 in game three of four if they had an off day before the series, 4.75—4.73 if they did not have an off day before. They were outscored 4.91—4.33 if they had the off day before the series, and were even, at 4.76—4.76, if they did not.
However, without any more information, it is difficult to tell if the walks and strikeouts are only the products of home effects on hitters. For instance, it may be that, given enough time to prepare himself to pitch, the pitcher can overcome any disadvantage of being on the road while the hitter has an advantage at reacting to the baseball when at home. In other words, it is possible that travel or staying in a hotel dulls hitters’ reaction times but does not impede the pitcher’s effectiveness. That is why I now introduce the fourth true outcome— the neglected one on which fielders also have no effect. The baseball playoffs are the most challenging to make among the four major pro sports, simply because the fewest number of teams get in—only 10 in total.
The best teams will still find a way to win, even if they’re on the road. Hitters ground into double plays in 2.92 percent of their balls in play at home and in 2.94 percent of their balls in play on the road. When I approximate opportunities—by looking at the number of singles, walks, batters hit by pitches, and batters reaching base on errors—that home and away teams have, the difference suddenly becomes statistically significant. The ratio of double plays at home to the sum of singles, walks, batters hit by pitches, and batters reaching on errors is 7.62 percent, and the ratio on the road is 7.96 percent.
I just think this is a case of randomness in a small sample size — similar to the Wild Card home-road splits. One could argue the home team may have more pressure and get tighter in this specific situation but we should still see home teams in Game 7 win at least 55% of the time with a larger sample size. As you can see above, that home-field edge increases in the postseason as it does in three of the four major sports, with the NHL as the lone exception. As for the "home field" part of home-field advantage, some of it no doubt flows from familiarity with the ballpark and its peculiarities. Another component, however, is the effect of the home crowd on the opposing players and the umpires. The bigger the moment, the more verve and vinegar the home crowd brings, generally speaking.
The practice of the home team batting last was not formally entrenched in the rules until the early years of the 20th Century, when it became mandatory. Before that, the home team could chose to bat first, and would sometimes do so to gain a tactical advantage . Most managers realized however that the tactical edge of batting last in the final inning was much more precious than any short-term gain from batting first. In Major League Baseball, another rule that advantages the home team, in interleague play, is that the use or not of the designated hitter is dependent on the practice of the home team. In an American League park, the DH will be used, while in National League parks, it will not. Home-field advantage is commonly attributed to the rigors of travel, which hinder the road team, and to the home team’s familiarity with the ballpark.
Just like in the ALCS, home-field advantage in this best-of-seven series (Games 1-2 and 6-7) goes to the Division Series winner with the higher regular-season winning percentage, but never a Wild Card team. The NLCS is set to begin on Saturday, Oct. 14 on TBS (first-pitch time is TBA). Home-field advantage in this best-of-seven series (Games 1-2 and 6-7) goes to the Division Series winner with the higher regular-season winning percentage, but never a Wild Card team. The ALCS is set to begin on Friday, Oct. 13 on FOX/FS1 (first-pitch time is TBA).
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